Fantasy Football Projected Strength of Schedule 2022: Running backs to move up and down your ranking

Some running backs you will start no matter who they are playing. They’re the ones scoring a lot of touchdowns and catching a lot of passes. They are unfailing dominators.

Too bad there aren’t many. You may be able to count them all on both hands.

For anyone brave enough to play running back in the NFL, matchups matter. Last year, teams with strong D-lines like the Titans and Saints were in the top 2 for fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. They have combined for 11 outings of 15+ PPR points allowed over 34 games. Even defenses like the Cardinals, Colts and Cowboys may not have totally scared you, but at the very least, they have lowered your expectations.

Tough confrontations stink. I know I would like to avoid them as much as possible.

Lame calendar strength lists that lazily take last year’s win and loss records and apply them to the new year’s slate do nothing for me. Not with all the turnover in attack and defense every offseason – particularly this past offseason.

That’s why I created the Projected Strength of Schedule (PSoS) for each team’s running game. I have given a full explanation of the defense ranking methodology, and you can see that herebut i basically came up with my own custom schedule force for running backs based on who they face on this year’s rosters, not last year’s rosters, and with a ground more than the win-loss record taken into consideration.

What to do with this information? Well, for starters, the schedules should interest you – no two NFL defenses are the same and a weaker unit is much more likely to contain your Fantasy runner than a stronger one. And I obviously know that defenses change when injuries and bad performances happen, but it’s still a good starting point to understand the good/bad matchups for the players you’re considering…especially early in the season.

Ultimately, I use these notes as additional research to help me complete my analysis of a running back. I also believe it’s the best possible tiebreaker when debating between two players. When you look at the ratings below, 1 represents the easiest projected season and 32 the hardest, i.e. Lions running backs have the easiest schedule and Raiders have the hardest. difficult.

One season PSoS for RBs

TED 1 NYJ 17
MIN 2 BL 18
GB 3 JAX 19
WSH 4 BUF 20
NOT 6 SEA 22
HOO 7 LAR 23
ISP 9 KEY 25
SF ten PIT 26
DAL 11 K.C. 27
TEN 12 TB 28
MIA 14 ATL 30
NYG 15 ARI 31
LAIR 16 BT 32

Weeks 1-4 PSoS for RBs

KEY 2 TEN 18
ISP 3 RIC 19
NYG 5 ARI 21
NOPE 6 BT 22
WSH 8 K.C. 24
LAR 9 MIN 25
GB ten NYJ 26
LAIR 11 MIA 27
HOO 12 JAX 28
PIT 13 TB 29
SF 14 NOT 30
DAL 15 ATL 31
BL 16 BUF 32

Weeks 15-17 PSoS for RBs

NYJ 2 CHI 18
JAX 4 WSH 20
ARI 5 DAL 21
BL 7 MIN 23
TB 8 LAIR 24
SF 9 RIC 25
K.C. ten LAR 26
NOT 11 ATL 27
HOO 12 MIA 28
ISP 13 GB 29
SEA 14 KEY 30
TEN 15 BT 31
PIT 16 LAKE 32

The biggest winners

From Andre Swift: With a last-place schedule and matchups against the AFC East, NFC East, and NFC North (including a downgraded Bears run defense), the Lions’ top runners have the fewest game problems this season, especially after Week 3. It also helps that he has the easiest projected schedule for the Fantasy playoffs.

Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon: Listen, if Swift is going to be here, then you better believe the Packers runners will be here as well, especially since they’ll face the Bears AND the Lions twice apiece. If you think the Packers are going to run more and throw less after their offseason, then you’ll love their projected overall schedule as well as their top 10 early season PSoS.

Antonio Gibson: Looks like Gibson needs some good news after this offseason. Here’s a glimmer: The Commanders racing game is one of two in the league to have an overall PSoS top 5 and a top 8 at the start of the season. Things get a little dicey around Week 15 in Washington, though. I guess not everything can be good for Gibson.

Damon Pierce: Pierce must first prove that he is the Texans’ best running back. When it does, it will have a pretty good schedule to start the year and a PSoS top 12 for the whole year. In fact, the Texans are the only team to place in the top 12 in every PSoS category.

The biggest losers

Leonard Fournette: Being Tom Brady’s best running back is a good gig. Having to do it twice against the AFC North, NFC West, Packers, Chiefs and Saints is not good. It was enough to knock Fournette down one spot in my ranking (Aaron Jones moved up).

James Conner: The Cardinals will lean on Conner like they did last year when he had a pretty decent roster. This year, it will see the second-worst PSoS in a full year and a projected lower half in the first four weeks. When (if?) he gets to week 15, he’ll be perfect for your fantasy team, but can you wait that long for him to shine?

Josh Jacobs: I’ve had scheduling issues with Jacobs before and he overcame them. Kind of. He was never among the top 12 running backs per game in PPR. Now he’ll be tasked with a renewed role in a new offense and face the lowest-ranked PSoS of a full year filled with the NFC West, Colts, Titans, Saints, Steelers, Patriots and Broncos. and the Chiefs twice each.

Anyone in Atlanta: Whether it’s Cordarrelle Patterson or rookie Tyler Allgeier or someone else, the Falcons are struggling all season long. Their third-worst PSoS for all of 2022 is hampered by the simple fact that they face the Saints and Buccaneers twice each – one of only two teams to do so.

Do not write them, but consider buying cheap

(These running backs have a tough PSoS early in the season, but their schedules improve dramatically from October. That’s when you’ll want to trade for them — just before that.)

  • David Montgomery
  • Brece room
  • Damien Harris
  • james robinson

Write them up, then consider selling high

(These running backs have an easy PSoS at the start of the season, but their schedules get tougher from October onwards. That’s when you might be looking to trade them and get as much capital back as possible – just before that.)

  • Najee Harris
  • Alvin Kamara
  • Nick Chubb
  • Cam Akers
  • Saquon Barkley
  • Kenneth Walker

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