Friday Five: Tyrese, free throws, schedule and more – CycloneFanatic.com
Iowa State Cyclones guard Tyrese Hunter (11) lays the ball around Texas Longhorns guard Courtney Ramey (3) during the second half at the Hilton Coliseum on Saturday January 15, 2022 , in Ames, Iowa.
Attack vs. Texas
The biggest takeaway from the Texas game other than Chris Beard not knowing what “unanimity” means was the Iowa State offense recording its second-best outing against a P6 team this season by recording 1.14 points per possession (PPP) in the win over the Longhorns. Only the Xavier game was a more prolific scoring game, registering at 1.16 DPI.
He also scored the second highest scoring rate the Longhorns have allowed this season, only Gonzaga scored at a higher gross rate with 1.33 PPP.
Thanks to barttorvik.com, where you can review game by game offensive and defensive efficiencies which are adjusted for opponent strength, we can also see that this was a stronger scoring performance than the game against Xavier due to the Longhorn defense being #16 on Torvik and #18 on KenPom.
The two main reasons for the explosion were Gabe Kalscher who went for 22 points on a 6-for-12 shot from behind the 3-point line. It was Kalscheur’s second-best performance in offensive rating at 116 (behind only Memphis), but it was done quite effectively with only a slightly higher usage rate than his average 25% usage rate. . He still had two turnovers, but those were a bugaboo for him all season with only two games where he had fewer.
The other big reason for the team’s offensive performance was first-year point guard play, Tyrese Hunter. Hunter earned his first KenPom MVP of his college career and notched his best offensive rating of the season at 131.
Tyrese and turnover
But how good has Tyrese been? I present to you two paintings…
First, if he’s had any failures this season it’s been with turnovers and maybe 3-point shooting, but at his shooting volume his 3-point percentage isn’t great, although a improvement would bring his game to a very high level. . But his 24% turnover rate was his biggest battle of the season which can be improved upon as we go.
Below is a chart of all major freshmen who average at least 20 minutes per game. This is not ruled out just for playmakers, but we plot his utilization rate (x-axis) against his turnover rate (y-axis) against all other P6 freshmen.
Regardless of how bad his turnover rate is, it’s really not out of place.
For reference, compare this graph to the same group of freshmen in 2014. Yes, Monte Morris had half the turnover rate, but he also had half the usage while being surrounded by a lot more offensive talent. . Much more. In fact, Monte Morris never had a utilization rate above 20% until its senior year.
Now let’s look at his assist rate (x-axis) and compare it to the turnover rate.
Thing is, while his turnovers need to improve and they do, in the grand scheme of things, they really aren’t too far off from the load he needs to carry and he has the fourth best turnover rate. first year P6 audience playing. 20 minutes per game.
Texas Tech and free throws
I don’t just want it to continue to complain about the three guys wearing black and white stripes in Lubbock on Tuesday night (although I have a few), but I want to point out the biggest area of improvement for the defense Cyclone which is currently 4and in the NCAA from now on. Iowa State currently has a defensive free throw rate (opponent’s free throw attempts / opponent’s field goal attempts) that is 314and in the country, their worst ranking in this statistic in the KenPom database was in 1997!
What is the practical negative result of excessive fouling? You need look no further than Tuesday night to see what can happen, again without debating the legitimacy or fairness of the fouls that have been called.
Tuesday night at Lubbock, Texas Tech scored at 1.05 PPP, the second-highest scoring rate allowed by Iowa State this season. In the game, the Cyclones were called for 28 fouls and Texas Tech attempted 38 free throws. On possessions that did not include trips to the free throw line, the Red Raiders scored 0.85 PPI. It was the fifth highest allowed this season, but definitely not far off the 0.77 average this season. On possessions where Tech went to the free throw line (and an excluded situation), they scored 1.61 PPA.
Opponents this year are averaging 1.47 PPA on possessions that go to the free throw line, so again their manufacture percentage wasn’t completely irrelevant, but what to prevent, c is the volume of trips to the free throw line. Good whistle or bad whistle, the free throw rate has to go down.
The two highest free throw rates by opponents in the past 20 years have occurred this season (Kennesaw State at 78.3 and the road game at Texas Tech at 82.6).
Updated calendar matrix
Last week’s update is the calendar matrix I made. The games are listed in the leftmost column of the Big 12 game, from most difficult to least, and each column shows the results of the given team in those games. Green for a win, red for a loss, and yellow if this game is part of the next four league games for the given team.
The biggest point here? A ton has been made (including by me) about how difficult the first six conference games are for the Cyclones but the next four games aren’t much easier. As we predict today, after Iowa State’s first ten league games, they will have played seven of the eight toughest conference games possible. That’s the bad news, but the good news is that in four games, ISU will have seven of its ten “easiest” games to play. This is the breakdown by each team showing how many of their last eight games are of easier variety.
UIS 8and in the Big 12 Defense
Those who really pay attention to KenPom might have noticed that the state of Iowa is currently 4and in adjusted defensive effectiveness in the country, but on the conference page they are only listed as the 8and best defense in the league in conference games only. How is it possible? Is the defense really worse in the league?
Two important things are happening here and both are tied to the schedule of Big 12 games being played.
First, the conference page with conference results is not adjusted for competitive strength.
Second, the Big 12’s top five offenses by adjusted overall offense or Big 12 raw scores are:
- Texas technology
Yes, they have only played the top five attacks in the six league games so far. I would expect the Big 12 defensive raw numbers to start improving.