Miami Dolphins odds, picks, predictions, schedule
Ahead of the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a preview of the game for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, total wins over/under picks and prop bets for each team. Today we will be covering the Miami Dolphins. Be sure to check out our Las Vegas Raiders preview.
Miami Dolphins (+4000 to win the Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 record: 9-8 (3rd in AFC East)
Last season was a year of hot and cold streaks for the Dolphins, who started 1-7 before finishing the season 8-1 to post nine wins overall.
A few new faces are coming to Miami to build on the late season success. The Dolphins opted to hire 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel after firing former head coach Brian Flores. They also acquired star receiver Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs, while strengthening their offensive line through free agency.
The Dolphins are hoping these personnel changes will be enough to propel them into the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
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Dolphins off-season moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel hired as head coach
- Traded five draft picks for Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill, who then signed a four-year/$120 million contract with the Dolphins.
- Signed OT Terron Armstead, RB Raheem Mostert, WR Cedrick Wilson, QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Chase Edmonds and G Connor Williams
- Drafted Georgia LB Channing Tindall (#102), Texas Tech WR Erik Ezukanma (#125), California OLB Cameron Goode (#224) and Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson (#247)
2022 Dolphin Calendar
Week 1: against the New England Patriots
Week 2: Baltimore Ravens
Week 3: vs Buffalo Bills
Week 4: at the Cincinnati Bengals
Week 5: at the New York Jets
Week 6: against the Minnesota Vikings
Week 7: against the Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 8: at the Detroit Lions
Week 9: Chicago Bears
Week 10: vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 11: GOODBYE
Week 12: against the Houston Texans
Week 13: San Francisco 49ers
Week 14: Los Angeles Chargers
Week 15: at the Buffalo Bills
Week 16: against the Green Bay Packers
Week 17: New England Patriots
Week 18: against the New York Jets
NFL Betting Lines: Dolphins Win Total O/U
8.5 Victories (FanDuel)
From my perspective, it’s hard to gauge whether all of the Dolphins’ offseason additions definitely make them a better team than at least nine of their opponents to surpass 8.5 wins.
The bookends on this schedule are brutal — I believe there’s a real chance Miami won’t get more than two wins combined in Weeks 1-4 and 13-18. If I correctly assume they get off to a bad start – let’s call it 1-3 – will they lose motivation under a new head coach and an inexperienced quarterback?
Despite all of their quality additions this offseason (Chief Hill among them), I still have questions about Tua Tagovailoa moving forward in this revamped offense. Of course, a lot of past issues can be traced to Miami’s horrendous offensive line, an area they’ve undoubtedly improved in the offseason, but something’s wrong with trusting Tua to erase that. total, especially at a price of -135.
That said, there are still things to like about the Dolphins. They fire 10 starters on a defense ranked 10th in the league in overall defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Additionally, the hiring of McDaniel, an offensive magician under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, and the addition of Hill should improve an offense that ranked 24th on the DVOA team last season.
But the Dolphins also play the majority of games (nine to be exact) against defenses ranked in the top half of the DVOA last season. In my estimation, six of those teams — Bills, Patriots, Browns, Steelers, 49ers and Vikings — are solid bets to retain that distinction this season.
Based on all of these trends, I have no choice but to consider the Under for the Dolphins at +115.
Dolphins O/U 8.5 wins: the choice
Less than 8.5 wins (+105 or better)
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Tua Tagovailoa Under 24.5 Passing TD’s (-112, FanDuel)
Even if Tagovailoa manages to stay healthy — he’s averaging north of 10 starts a year in his first two seasons — I wonder if he can erase 24.5 passing touchdowns.
Last season, the Alabama product threw for just 16 passing touchdowns. For reference, he ran into three more. Also, given the additions for Miami in the backfield (Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds), I wonder if McDaniel is aiming for a more balanced offense that doesn’t see the lion’s share of scoring opportunities for Tua.
Also, recalling McDaniel’s time with the 49ers, I can’t help but wonder if he’ll be aiming to use Hill the same way Deebo Samuel did. If Hill participates live in option patterns as a runner, it further takes away from Tagovailoa’s opportunities to throw for touchdowns.
The final element I consider with this handicap is that the Dolphins schedule puts them up against a number of quality pass defenses. Of those nine games against teams in the top half of last season’s DVOA pass defense, six are against teams ranked eighth or better.
Until I see Tua actually outperform this benchmark, cut the Under on his passing TDs prop to 23.5.